JAN 25–Certified Arabica coffee stocks at the ICE futures exchange in New York fell by 8,489 bags and remain at 5-year-lows at 1,290,189 bags on Wed Jan 25, near the lowest levels registered since October 2011, exchange data showed.
Reports From 2016;
NOV 3–Certified Arabica coffee stocks at the ICE futures exchange in New York continued to fall during October and registered fresh 5-year-lows at 1,272,988 bags on Thursday Nov 3, the lowest levels since October 2011, exchange data showed. The data is another blow to the bull-camp in the futures market who has tried to ignore the multiple rising fundamentals of significant lower-than-expected crops in almost all key producing countries including slowing exports from the world’s top grower Brazil.
JUL 11–Certified Arabica coffee stocks at the ICE futures exchange in New York continued to fall during June and registered near 5-year-lows at 1,297,352 bags by July 8th, the lowest levels since October 2011, exchange data showed. The data is another blow to the bull-camp in the futures market who has tried to ignore the multiple rising fundamentals of significant lower-than-expected crops in almost all key producing countries. The latest number is also sends the market an important message by falling below the psychological barrier of 1.3 million bags.
JUN 6–Certified Arabica stocks at the ICE futures exchange in New York continued to fall during May and early June and registered fresh 4 1/2 year-lows at 1,304,508 bags on Monday, pushing toward 5-year lows. With current world coffee consumption at close to 13 million 60-kilogram bags per month the coffee held in ICE stocks are enough only to meet global demand for a little over 3 days of consumption worth 428,000 bags per day.
MAY 2–Certified Arabica stocks at the ICE futures exchange in New York continued to fall during April, ending the month on April 29th with fresh 4 1/2 year-lows at 1,381,386 bags.
APR 12 (SpillingTheBeans)–Certified Arabica Coffee stocks held by the ICE U.S. futures Exchange continue to fall, with total stocks now down to 1.42 million bags by April 4th, ICE data show.
This is the lowest level in 4 1/2 years and continues the free-fall in the trend seen since last year where Brazilian coffee exporters drained local stocks in order to take advantage of a strong local currency, shipping at least 10 to 12 million 60-kilogram bags more than what the 2015-16 harvest produced for local consumption and the export market.
On March 31st certified Arabica coffee stocks were recorded at 1.43 million bags, and just two months ago, on Feb 5, ICE stocks stood at 1,588,777 bags which at the time represented the lowest level since mid-2012.
And last September stocks were still ONLY down to 3-year-lows as ICE, see the story from back then here;
ICE coffee exchange stocks tumble to 3-yr low amid high differentials
SEP 30, 2015 (Reuters)–U.S. coffee roasters have drawn down certified stocks to their lowest levels in three years, as soaring premiums for high-quality Central American beans have prompted them to incorporate older beans from the exchange in their blends instead.
The level of certified arabica coffee stored in ICE Futures U.S. warehouses fell below 2 million 60-kg bags on Tuesday, the most recent day for which data is available, totaling 1,998,621 bags. It was the first time since September 2012 that the levels fell below 2 million bags.
The declines have been pronounced for beans from Central American origins. Production of these beans, prized for their quality, has been hurt by dry weather and lingering effects of a leaf rust disease known as roya.
This has boosted the differentials roasters pay for physical delivery of the beans on top of ICE Futures U.S. prices to some of the highest levels in years.
For example, the premium for strictly hard bean Guatemalan coffee COF-GT-NYC rose to a near five-year high at 39 cents a lb this summer and is currently trading at 34 cents a lb, and Nicaraguan strictly high grown beans COF-NIC-NYC rose as high as 32 cents a lb and are currently trading at 28 cents a lb.
Since July 9, when stock levels peaked at 2.16 million bags after a month-long period of relatively steady growth, Guatemalan coffee stocks have fallen 65 percent to 8,470 bags, El Salvadoran stocks have fallen 46 percent to 11,492 bags and Nicaraguan stocks have fallen 20 percent to 81,208 bags.
Mexican and Costa Rican beans have also seen double-digit declines. Roasters have been willing to take these beans, which are often two to three years old, off the exchange at a discount and blend them with Colombian beans rather than pay up for new crop coffees, one U.S. importer said.
“People are buying old coffee instead of paying high differentials,” the trader said.
The only origin that has seen growth in certified stocks during that period is Colombia, whose inventory levels have risen by 16 percent to 434,032 bags amid expectations for a strong crop and lack of demand by well-covered roasters.
Many roasters have taken advantage of Colombia’s persistent, but historically rare, discount to Central American beans to incorporate Colombian beans, also prized for their flavor, into their blends.