MARKET INSIGHT: March Arabica Coffee Rally To 5-Mo Highs, End Up 5.20 Cents At $1.2520/Lb Jan 31 On Brazil Drought Concerns

JAN 31 (SpillingTheBeans)–Arabica coffee futures continued to rally throughout Friday’s session at the ICE futures exchange in New York with the active March contract closing an impressive 5.20 cents higher at $1.2520 cents per pound, as reports of growing drought conditions in Brazil’s main coffee producing belt spread concerns among traders. The latest reports of growing drought conditions bode ill for the next 2014-15 harvest in the world’s largest coffee producing country, and come following forecasts by three major industry players in the last month that already cut their crop views for both the current 2013-14 and next crops in Brazil following multiple weather problems in the last year. March Arabica futures have strengthened 11.35 c/lb in the last 4 sessions since Tuesday, or the equivalent to 10 percent in value, in what was the strongest single-session since last August, while Arabica futures have risen 13 percent since the beginning of the year. More forward May Arabica futures were trading up 5.15 cents at $1.2720/lb.

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JAN 31 (SpillingTheBeans)–Arabica coffee futures continued to rally in over-night trading Friday at the ICE futures exchange in New York with the active March contract up 1.25 cents at $1.2125 cents per pound, as reports of growing drought conditions in Brazil’s main coffee growing belt spread concerns among traders. The latest reports of growing drought conditions bode ill for the next 2014-15 harvest in the world’s largest coffee producing country, and come following forecasts by three major industry players in the last month that already cut their crop views for both the current 2013-14 and next crops in Brazil following multiple weather problems in the last year. More forward May Arabica futures were trading up 1.15 cents at $1.2045/lb. (05:35a.m. EDT)

JAN 30 (SpillingTheBeans)–Arabica coffee futures returned to rally Thursday at the ICE futures exchange in New York, taking the active March contract up 2.90 cents to settle at $1.2000 cents per pound, and strengthening by 6.15 cents, or 5.4 percent, in the last three sessions. Prices opened higher across the board and stayed in higher territory throughout the session as funds and investors entered with a fresh buying spree to cover short positions on ongoing concerns over lower than expected crops from the world’s Number one and two producer respectively, Brazil and Vietnam. Traders told SpillingTheBeans the market remains concerned about the latest series of lower cuts in forecasts for both the current and next crops in Brazil, as well as significantly lower than expected exports out of Vietnam. More forward May Arabica futures closed up 2.90 cents at $1.2205/lb.

*For more on the 1st Conab forecast for the 2014-15 Brazil crop: https://globalcoffeefund.com/brazils-conab-pegs-2014-14-coffee-harvest-in-brazil-down-to-46-5m-51-15m-bags/

*For more on Volcafe’s cut in its Brazil figures: https://globalcoffeefund.com/harvest-analysis-volcafe-cuts-2013-14-crop-view-for-brazil-by-3-8m-bags-pegs-14-15-down-to-51m-bags/

*For more on the latest Brazil figures from Somar: https://globalcoffeefund.com/brazils-somar-cuts-estimate-for-2013-14-crop-by-3m-bags-to-51m-bags-predicts-rain-damage-in-2014-15/

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*O-NIGHT: Mar Arabica Coffee Continue To Rise O-Night, +1.35 Cent At $1.1845/Lb Jan 30 On Short Covering
JAN 30 (SpillingTheBeans)–Arabica coffee futures continued to strengthen in over-night trading Thursday at the ICE futures exchange in New York with the active March contract up 1.35 cents at $1.1710 cents per pound, as funds and investors were covering short positions. More forward May Arabica futures were trading up 1.30 cents at $1.2045/lb. (05:38a.m. EDT)

JAN 29 (SpillingTheBeans)–Arabica coffee futures closed higher on Wednesday at the ICE futures exchange in New York with the active March contract settling up 2.45 cents at $1.1710 cents per pound. Prices opened higher across the board and stayed in higher territory through most of the session as funds and investors entered with a buying spree to cover short positions. Volume was modest and traders said the market continues to be concerned about the latest series of lower cuts in forecasts for both the current and next crops in Brazil, as well as significantly lower than expected exports out of Vietnam. More forward May Arabica futures closed up 2.35 cents at $1.1915/lb.

JAN 28 (SpillingTheBeans)–Arabica coffee futures closed higher on Tuesday at the ICE futures exchange in New York with the active March contract settling up 0.80 cent at $1.1465 cents per pound. Prices opened lower across the board but early attempts by the bear camp in the market to drive prices further down were quickly contested and the rest of the session prices zigzagged in opposite directions. Toward the last hour of trading, however, the bull camp started taking hold of directions, pushing prices higher until the close in a session that was market by busy activity and high volume. Traders said the market continues to be concerned about the latest series of lower cuts in forecasts for both the current and next crops in Brazil, as well as significantly lower than expected exports out of Vietnam. More forward May Arabica futures closed up 0.75 cent at $1.1680/lb.

JAN 28 (SpillingTheBeans)–Arabica coffee futures were trading higher in late session Tuesday at the ICE futures exchange in New York with the active March contract up 0.45 cent at $1.1430 cents per pound.(12:01p.m.EDT)
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JAN 27 (SpillingTheBeans)–Arabica coffee futures closed lower on Monday at the ICE futures exchange in New York with the active March contract settling down 0.55 cent at $1.1385 cents per pound. Prices opened lower across the board but early attempts by the bull camp, which succeeded in taking prices to an intraday high of $1.1775, were cut short when the bear camp returned to action and forced prices back down on profit taking in a session marked by modest volume. More forward May Arabica futures closed down 0.65 cent at $1.1605/lb.
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