*BREAKING MARKET WATCH: Arabica Coffee Chasing New HISTORIC Highs As #KC Range Set for $3-$4/Lb in 1H-2025
By Maja Wallengren
Global Coffee Reporter and Independent Analyst
*NOV 28, 2024 (SpillingTheBeans)–Arabica coffee is chasing new HISTORIC HIGHS over 340 and once Arabica #coffee tops the All Time High of $3.39/lb reached in April 1977 – and this move is just around the corner – the #KC market is in uncharted territory. From that moment only the sky is the limit because even MORE crazy panic will spread, and this goes both for Arabica and Robusta coffee, because at this point it’s not really about what type of coffee commercials want but what they can get and what is available. That said, it is inevitable that there WILL be profit taking as well as testing of what lows MAY be reached, but at this point the market and commercials especially will not be comfortable going to much back below 300 for the time being and based on latest trade activity, by the 2nd half of January at the LATEST Arabica prices should/could be ready to move into 400-500 range. This does NOT mean prices will stay there, volatility will – as also reported by @SpillingTheBean since August – will be more crazy than ever and #KC will likely see days where prices can rise or drop 20-30-50 cents or even up to $1 in one single session and both fresh selling and buying can and will happen at every level!! Come between 3Q and 4Q-2025 when last remaining stocks will be gone in any meaningful measure #KC should be ready to move into 500-600 range and then between 2025-2026-2027, depending on just how much EVIDENCE is available for any meaningful recovery of supply vs consumption, Arabica prices can go all the way up to $12-15-17/lb while Robusta easily can go to $8-10K or above – AGAIN these levels are unlikely to last for more than a few minutes as intraday highs and volatility will reach levels unimaginable today!! Four BIG #coffee reports are underway which will define how soon and how high #KC both for Arabica and Robusta will go before mid-January;
-USDA’s FAS Semi-Annual Vietnam report, expected out any day now and expected to see significant downward revision of both 2023-24 and 2024-25 crop figures,
-Conab 4th and final 2024 harvest review by aprox mid-Dec, which SHLD be revised further down a min 4-6M bags both for A+R but more realistic will be cut by a further 2-4M bags,
-USDA’s World Market and Trade Coffee Annual, due for release about mid-Dec and expected to post sharp downward revision for overall 2024-25 world crop number (already down by 5-6M bags) by min 7-8-10M bags, and ALSO should see a significant drop in overall stocks numbers all around,
-Conab FIRST forecast for new 2025 Brazil harvest which in MOST optimistic view canNOT be higher than 40-42M bags but more realistic will be launched at 44-48M bags by Conab.
*Again, and finally, until REAL EVIDENCE is available confirming not just a SIGNIFICANT recovery of the crop losses across countries home to 80-90% of total world production but ALSO and even more important this evidence is CONFIRMED in the form of replenished and growing stocks in importing ports, the #KC market and commercials especially will be on edge and panic rules, which should keep Arabica trading in the 300-400 range minimum, and Robusta in the 5-6000 range!!
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My name is Maja and I’m a Danish born woman crazy beyond passionate about everything coffee. I have written about all aspects of coffee for over 25 years from 60 coffee producing countries across the world.
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