JUL 18–Coffee regions in Brazil’s key Southern Minas coffee belt and most of Sao Paulo is at risk for a new wave of damaging frost Tuesday July 19th. Weather forecasts also say frost is expected on Friday, further extending already vulnerable coffee fields to the cold. The longer trees, leafs and cherries are exposed to extreme cold, the bigger is the potential damage to new crop, and for trees to be too damaged to produce crops in the next cycle.
See all the details and the MOUNTING evidence of the frost attack that hit Southern Minas, Cerrado, Mogiana, Sao Paulo and Parana at dawn on Monday, July 18th, 2016, here;
See more details about the latest frost alert here: http://sma.fundacaoabc.org/
Read on for MORE DETAILS about the precarious outlook for the world 2016-17 coffee crop and how almost all the world’s biggest producing countries are suffering weather damage to the new harvest.
MAY 24–3p.m. Update–Brazil’s southern coffee state of Parana reports frost with temperatures at 3 coffee locations between 2.23°C and 2.42°C — Coffee frost starts when temperatures dip below 3 to 4°C where coffee can suffer damage.
“Nesta Terça-feira (24/05), o dia começou com temperaturas baixas em todas as cidades da região de atuação do Grupo ABC e também com maior presença de nuvens em parte da região dos Campos Gerais no Paraná, devido a incursão de umidade vinda do mar. Os menores valores de temperatura mínima foram registrados em Tibagi-PR com 2,23°C; Imbituva-PR com 2,27°C e Castro-PR com 2,42°C.” –SMA Fundacaoa
*2p.m. Update–Coffee Farm in Sao Paulo state reports only 4ºC early this morning but no damage so far
*11a.m. Update–Latest reports from Brazil shows temperatures as LOW as 4.9ºC early Tuesday
AS FROST HITS BRAZIL’s COFFEE REGIONS, WORLD OUTLOOK IN SHAMBLES
LIVE FROM BRAZIL, May 24 (SpillingTheBeans)–Brazil’s coffee lands are officially in frost season with VERY cold weather reported across the southern coffee belt of the world’s biggest grower and exporter at dawn on Tuesday.
Local weather forecasters issued a frost alert this morning for Brazil’s coffee region of Parana and parts of Sao Paulo and Southern Minas, and temperatures were later reported to dip to as low as 5.4 degrees in most of the coffee regions of Parana and parts of Sao Paulo. Frost damage to coffee starts to occur at between 3 and 4 degrees, and can also happen at temperatures of 5 to 6 degrees if coffee is exposed to such cold weather for a longer period of time.
Most of the Brazilian coffee regions are expecting a better crop in the new 2016-17 cycle for which harvesting is starting this month, but damage from the severe drought in 2014 and continuing dryness in both 2015 and 2016 have limited plant growth of the branches and nodes where coffee cherries form by 10 to 15 percent, local agronomists say.
Brazil’s second largest producing state of Espirito Santo, meanwhile, continues to suffer severe impact of ongoing drought in its robusta regions with the new harvest the 4th consecutive crop that suffers from massive and prolonged dryness. Local, private and official agronomists in Espirito Santo now agree the new Conilon (robusta) crop may fall to as little as 5 million bags, which would represent FRESH losses in Brazil of 3 million 60-kilogram bags.
For the world 2016-17 coffee production to reach 148 million bags the market needs to get a minimum of 49 million bags from Brazil and at least 27 million bags from Nr 2 grower Vietnam. This is NOT happening as the Brazil harvest figure is already coming down to maximum 47 to 48 million bags, and Vietnam is expecting its lowest crop in 5 years because of the worst drought there in over 90 years, with a very real potential for the next Vietnamese crop to fall below 20 million bags. Drought has also damaged new coffee crops in Indonesia, India and East Africa.
That means the world 2016-17 coffee crop will struggle to reach 140 million bags. Even if conservative estimates based on the optimistic illusion that Brazil’s losses in Espirito Santo won’t be as big as expected and that Vietnam by some miracle may still yield a decent crop after 5 months with no rain, world output will at the very most be able to reach 144 to 145 million bags against global consumption pegged at a minimum of 154 to 156 million bags in 2016. In the worst case scenario the 2016-17 world coffee crop will produce the biggest deficit in years of between 10 and 15 million bags.
Stay tuned for more coffee updates at SpillingTheBeans in the coming days!
To see more on the current Brazil coffee weather: http://sma.fundacaoabc.org/