Photo courtesy of Rede Social do Café, taken at dawn July 18th, 20016
JUL 18–BRAZIL WEATHER FORECASTERS, GROWERS REPORT MAJOR FROST ATTACH EARLY MON
*Weather Forecasters in Brazil report major frost wave across the key Southern Minas coffee belt, Mogiana and Cerrado, as well as across most of Sao Paulo.
*Coffee growers CONFIRM that coffee farms and vast areas of coffee have been hit in many top Southern Minas coffee municipalities including Nova Resende, Muzambinho, Sao Sebastiao da Uniao, Pocos de Caldas and Cabo Verde.
*Temperatures reported as low as -2˚c at dawn in Poços de Caldas, and 0˚c in Sao Pedro da Uniao and many other regions in Southern Minas. Frost damage to trees and cherries start at between 4˚c and 3˚c when leafs and fruit start burning and depending on the length of the exposure to the cold, die and fall of trees. Frost-damaged trees are unlikely to produce any crop in the next cycle while current crop becomes unfit for human consumption.
See more pictures, which clearly show ripe harvest is still ON TREES, from Monday’s coffee frost attack in Brazil: http://www.redepeabirus.com.br/redes/form/post?topico_id=62975&pag=1
*Coffee regions in many parts of Parana were ALSO hit with frost this morning, reports the Parana Institute Of Agronomy, IAPAR; http://revistacafeicultura.com.br/?mat=62155
Coffee growers in both the Cerrado region, Mogiana and key coffee municipalities Sao Pedro da Uniao and Nova Resende in the heart of Southern Minas confirmed in independent comments to SpillingTheBeans that “vast areas of farms” had been hit by the frost. Pictures from multiple regions showed trees and leaves with varying levels of burn, indicating the SEVERE DEGREE of Monday’s frost as leafs and cherries normally dont’t start to show burn levels until various days AFTER a frost has hit.
“We heard several reports of frost this morning in the Cerrado Mineiro region and in the next couple of days we will have a more clear view of the extend of damage as the leaves will start to wilt up and die,” said an agronomist with a major grower in the Cerrado region of Patrocinio.
Photos and details from Cerrado, Mogiana and Southern Minas by: https://www.facebook.com/groups/montanhascafeeiras/574225446094489/?notif_t=group_activity¬if_id=1468845482788954
Photo by Sergio Parreiras Pereira en Campos Altos early Tuesday
“We were not expecting this. Both farms with higher elevations as well as lower lying areas were hit. We will follow this in the field in the coming days to measure the damage,” Andre Alvarenga, agricultural engineer at Procafe analysts, told the Reuters news agency, adding that he expects some areas to suffer damage from the sudden cold snap. Alvarenga said the Mogiana region of Sao Paulo and the southern part of the Cerrado region in Minas Gerais were the most widely affected areas, but that frost damage was also reported in South Minas and in isolated areas of Parana.
Photo by Antônio Sérgio Souza from Sao Pedro da Uniao, Southern Minas early Tuesday
*Brazil’s weather forecasters at the Sao Paulo-based FundacaoABC this weekend issued a NEW frost alert for the Southern Minas region and parts of Sao Paulo to strike again on Tuesday July 19th, 2016;
See more here; http://sma.fundacaoabc.org/previsao_tempo/geada
The story is in development and will be updated as more details are confirmed (12:54 EDT)
JUN 26–BRAZIL WEATHER FORECASTERS ISSUE NEW FROST ALERT FOR SOUTHERN MINAS
*Brazil’s weather forecasters at the Sao Paulo-based FundacaoABC this weekend issued a NEW frost alert for the entire Brazilian coffee region of Southern Minas and parts of Sao Paulo. See more here;
After One Week Of Damaging Cold, Coffee Frost Alert Lifted For Brazil’s Southern Coffee Belt
JUN 15–UPDATE: BRAZIL WEATHER FORECASTERS FINALLY LIFTS COFFEE FROST ALERT OVER SOUTHERN BRAZIL
*Brazil’s weather forecasters at the Sao Paulo-based FundacaoABC finally lifted the frost alert over coffee regions in Southern Minas and Sao Paulo by early afternoon local time Wednesday. The latest move comes even after the agency late on Tuesday said frosty weather could persist until Friday, but temperatures have since then warmed up the southern region on a more consistent basis. Damaging frost first hit key Brazilian coffee regions on June 8th and has with only one or two days exemptions in some select parts of the key south-central coffee regions continued to persist all the way through Tuesday this week. As the weather warms agronomists say the damage to trees and new crop is expected to become more evident and losses have already been confirmed across Southern Minas, Sao Paulo and Parana, regions that account for over 60 percent of Brazil’s total harvest and over 80 percent of the Arabica crop.
*See all the LATEST on the current frost attack in Brazil, some damage already reported: https://globalcoffeefund.com/breaking-frost-strikes-brazils-key-southern-minas-coffee-belt-damage-reported-as-frost-alert-extended-for-4-days/
JUN 14–UPDATE (9pm EDT):
BRAZIL WEATHER WARMS BUT COFFEE FROST ALERT STAYS FOR SOUTHERN MINAS AND SAO PAULO UNTIL FRIDAY
*Frost alert for Wednesday June 15th
*Frost alert for Thursday June 16th
MARKET INSIGHT: Intense Coffee Frost Alert Extended For Brazil’s Southern Minas Through June 16th
JUN 12 (SpillingTheBeans)–Brazil’s key coffee producing region of Southern Minas will continue to experience “very intense” frost for the next four days and local weather forecasters have extended the frost alert through June 16th. Most of the states of Sao Paulo and Parana are also covered by the frost alert and coffee meteorologists do not expect the cold weather to start to ease until Friday.
*Frost alert for Monday June 13th
Brazil’s entire south-central coffee region, which is home to over 60 percent of Brazil’s entire annual harvest and over 80 percent of the country’s Arabica crop, is currently experiencing an unusual intense cold front which took weather forecasters by surprise and temperatures have consistently dipped below expectations.
Frost damage to coffee starts to occur at between 3°C and 4°C when mature coffee cherries on trees start to burn and young trees up to 2 years of age can wilt and die. Frost damage to coffee can also happen at between 5 to 6 degrees if coffee is exposed to such cold weather for a longer period of time.
*Frost alert for Tuesday June 14th
Most of the Brazilian coffee regions are expecting a better crop in the new 2016-17 cycle for which harvesting is starting this month, but damage from the severe drought in 2014 and continuing dryness in both 2015 and 2016 have limited plant growth of the branches and nodes where coffee cherries form by 10 to 15 percent, local agronomists say. Additionally, most of the coffee regions in Southern Minas and Sao Paulo have been hit with excessive rains which have led to significant losses in both cherries fallen to the ground and quality of the crop left on trees.
*Frost alert for Wednesday June 15th
*Frost alert for Thursday June 16th
*Frost alert for Friday June 17th
Stay tuned for more coffee updates at SpillingTheBeans. We are in HOURLY contact with both growers and weather forecasters at SOMAR and other agricultural agencies. More updates and news coming up!
To see more on the current Brazil coffee weather: http://sma.fundacaoabc.org/
Great timely up to date commentary and news for the coffee mkt. Thanks for your dedication!
Timely and informative breaking news. Tyu for your dedication to the KC industry
Thanks so much for your kind comments!
Thanks Maja for all this accurate info! We appreciate all the leg work and effort you put into the analysis of Coffee markets. I think the most important point is even if BZ, Vietnam and CentAM faced zero weather issues, and produced 100% of their natural potential; the world would still consume every bean, with nothing left over. The frost and upcoming La Niña will only make the situation more dire.
Thanks so much ALL, your comments are much appreciated 🙂
Thanks for your update on possible frost on Coffee in Brazil. Is the latest market movement is influenced by the damages of frost or other factors..?
The latest rise in prices is mostly because the extend of the rain damage to the Arabica crop coupled with the drought damage to the robusta crop that is finally starting to sink in to the market, and that at a time when we have some of the smallest stocks in years. I will have a few more pieces out this week 🙂