–Veteran coffee weather forecaster Mike Palmerino CONFIRMS 4 days more frost will hit Brazil this week
–Four days more frost damage could provide DEATH BLOW to Brazil coffee production for years to come
–This week’s frost wave will likely be MORE damaging that frost already causing massive damage to Brazil’s coffee regions
–It is almost certain that frost damage in Brazil WILL WORSEN and crop recovery in most cases won’t be until 2024
–Latest info from USDA shows stocks are at lowest since 1960s and NO other origin can fill Brazil shortage
–Global demand continue to surge to new highs and any other weather problem now can push Arabica futures to new HISTORIC highs close to $4/lb
–Many key regions in Southern Minas and Cerrado report at least 25% of total cultivated area hit with frost, many individual farms report average of 40-60% damage
JULY 26 (SpillingTheBeans)–Veteran coffee weather forecaster Mike Palmerino confirmed this weekend that all Brazil’s key coffee regions will be hit with another MONSTER cold front causing a massive 4-day wave of freezing temperatures this week.
The latest cold front to hit Brazil’s coffee regions is the 4th this year and could turn out to not only be the most intense but the most severe to hit coffee, potentially cause even MORE damage to Brazil’s current 2021 harvest and prospects for the next 2022 harvest.
Temperatures are projected to dip as low as -3 Celsius between Thursday and Saturday, and even if Sunday morning should see weather between 0 to +4 , this is accompanied the combination of pressure that could cause even more damage to coffee trees.
“The dryness (Sunday) of the air and the persistence of cold high pressure at the surface will maximize the ability to produce damaging cold in the coffee belt. All areas are threatened,” said Mike Palmerino in a note shared with a number of market watchers including SpillingTheBeans.
“Once (the cold front) is over southern Brazil (starting Thursday) it will be slow to move out. This could allow for multiple days of frost and freeze conditions in the coffee belt. Our current forecast calls for temperatures of -2 to +2 celsius on Thursday and Friday mornings, -1 to +3 on Saturday morning,” said Palmerino, an independent meteorologist who has been tracking Coffee weather and frosts in Brazil since 1978.
At this time it is all but CERTAIN that the already massive extent of frost damage in Brazil will worsen, and ANY degree of additional damage from the upcoming frost wave from Thu. Jul. 29 through Sun. Aug. 1 could push Arabica futures into a complete free-fall panic as buyers and roasters already SCRAMBLE to cover contract deliveries not only through 2022 but half-way through 2023.
Arabica coffee futures surged to a fresh 7-year-highs of $2.2030/lb in early session Monday at the ICE exchange in New York as the overwhelming reports of evidence showing massive frost damage to most coffee regions in Brazil continue to flood social media and news sites, sending the market into a frenzy of panic buying to cover contracts for 2022 and part of 2023 delivery. Defaults are already expected to come.
JULY 23 (SpillingTheBeans)–Brazil’s key Cerrado Mineiro coffee region in the north-western corner of the country’s top producing state of Minas Gerais has been severely affected by the latest intense wave of damaging frost that hit most of the Arabica coffee park in Brazil this week, producers told SpillingTheBeans in exclusive interviews on Friday. This week’s frost attack was the most severe to hit coffee production in Brazil, the world’s largest grower and exporter, since 1978, and the 3rd intense cold front alone this year to cause frost damage both to the new 2021 coffee harvest as well as to the next 2022 crop. A 4th cold front with “very high” possibility of causing further damage to the already weakened coffee farm is forecast to start this weekend.
*This story will be updated and content and sources added shortly!